Futurological Materialism

A term used by Noah Raford (PhD MIT, former Chief of Foresight for the government of Dubai). It describes the belief that with enough data and the right analytical focus, you can avoid being surprised by the future.

Raford adapts Chögyam Trungpa’s concept of Spiritual Materialism from Cutting Through Spiritual Materialism (1973). Trungpa described how the ego co-opts spiritual practices to reinforce itself rather than dissolve: collecting meditation experiences, spiritual knowledge, and enlightened personas as possessions. The practitioner mistakes accumulation for progress.

Raford applies the same logic to futures work. Futurological materialism is the conviction that there is a certain amount of data which, if analyzed correctly, will reveal the right thing to pay attention to. The foresight practitioner collects trends, signals, and scenarios the way the spiritual seeker collects practices: as a shield against uncertainty.

The problem: there is no right thing. Multiple systems change simultaneously, and no amount of trend research will tell you what’s actually going to happen. The trap leads to analysis paralysis and, paradoxically, makes you miss the real changes happening around you because you don’t know what to prioritize.

Raford’s alternative is not to abandon analysis but to complement it with emotional preparedness and agency through action. Small, deliberate acts (even materially insignificant ones) help convert the terror of uncertain futures into something you can work with. The goal is not to predict correctly but to be ready to adapt.

Source: Noah Raford on Have A Nice Future (WIRED), Episode “Don’t Worry, It Gets Worse”